Interessante anche questo fenomeno dell'ingresso di società protagoniste del comparto minerario nella chimica attraverso l'acquisizione di players del segmento di produzione di fertilizzanti...
Moody's: Acquisitions in global fertiliser industry herald profound changes
Frankfurt, February 25, 2010 -- Moody's Investors Service highlights a recent spate of international acquisitions of fertiliser companies that could herald profound changes for the industry. In a new Special Comment the rating agency notes that the dynamics of the fertiliser industry could change markedly over the next five to seven years, with key developments in the three sub-segments of the fertiliser industry -- namely nitrogen, phosphates and potash. In particular, Moody's cautions that the changing dynamics could expose the industry to event risk, price pressure, intense competition, problems of overcapacity and supply/demand imbalance, which, in turn could impact the credit metrics of fertiliser companies.
The sheer scale of global acquisitions is illustrated in cumulative transaction values, with total deals exceeding USD25 billion since May 2008. Moreover, Moody's predicts that valuations will continue to rise amidst intensifying competition for the best assets. "Indeed price-earnings (PE) ratios have recently diverged significantly, and now range from approximately 10 to 30 across the industry, with potash and phosphate companies at the high end of the range for PEs and market capitalisation, and pure nitrogen companies at the low end, not least driven by M&A speculation. This kind of activity will likely continue in the short-to-medium term, with the nitrogen segment most likely to attract M&A activity given its high level of fragmentation," says Stanislas Duquesnoy, a Frankfurt-based Moody's Assistant Vice President-Analyst, and author of the report.
Moody's also observes that recent moves by mining giants BHP Billiton (A1, Stable) and Vale (Baa2, Stable) to acquire fertiliser assets could have profound consequences for fertiliser industry dynamics -- specifically for potash (BHP Billiton) and phosphates (Vale), with new capacity expected to come on-stream over the next five to seven years. "Pure potash and phosphates players will be at a disadvantage compared with the mining giants in terms of financial flexibility and ability to develop new greenfield/brownfield assets," adds Mr. Duquesnoy.
Over the short term, Moody's predicts heightened event risk, especially for the smaller fertiliser players and the nitrogen market, the latter being exposed to natural gas feedstock prices. However, in the longer term, the rating agency anticipates different scenarios for each sub-segment of the fertiliser industry. In Moody's opinion, the phosphates market is most at risk of overcapacity, with an already oversupplied market expected to continue for the next two to three years -- particularly in light of Vale's entry in this segment, which is unlikely to restore a sound supply/demand balance in the phosphates fertiliser industry in the short-to-medium term. The potash fertiliser industry continues to exhibit the most benign long-term industry fundamentals, notwithstanding that BHP Billiton's entry in the market (with two very large greenfield development projects) could have lasting effects on the industry dynamics of the potash market over the next five to seven years.
Moody's Special Comment -- entitled "Spate of international acquisitions in the fertiliser industry could change global industry dynamics" -- can be found at
OpenDNS in the Special Reports sub-directory under the Research & Ratings tab.