Originalmente inviato da i98mark
Intanto soffrono anche le linee aeree per il calo passeggeri..
Nella scorsa settimana é toccato a Lufthansa vedere il proprio rating BBB posto in osservazione dopo che la società ha annunciato che sarà necessario disporre misure aggiuntive (di taglio dei costi e/o riduzione degli investimenti) per poter ottenere un risultato operativo positivo nel 2009.
Un forecast decisamente peggiorativo delle precedenti stime, che avevano visto Lufthansa preconizzare un EBIT in deciso calo rispetto ai 1,35 mld euro conseguiti nel 2008, ma non a rischio di scivolamento in territorio negativo.
S&P deciderà il da farsi sentito il management di Lufthansa circa le misure che intendono adottare e l'impatto sui conti che si attendono di conseguire...
Lufthansa 'BBB' Ratings Placed On CreditWatch Negative After Warning On 2009 Profits; A-3 Short-Term Rating Affirmed
-- Germany-based aviation group Lufthansa has announced that business conditions in the airline industry are weakening and has reduced its earnings expectations for 2009.
-- We are placing the 'BBB' long-term corporate credit and senior
unsecured debt ratings on Lufthansa on CreditWatch with negative implications.
-- The CreditWatch placement reflects uncertainty pending further details on additional actions that the group might take to offset the decline in its profits.
-- Any lowering of the corporate credit rating will likely be limited to
LONDON (Standard & Poor's) June 22, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it has placed its 'BBB' long-term corporate credit rating and senior unsecured debt ratings on Germany-based aviation group Deutsche Lufthansa AG on CreditWatch with negative implications. At the same time, the A-3 short-term corporate credit rating on the group was affirmed.
"The CreditWatch placement reflects our concerns that underlying trading conditions and prospects have deteriorated in recent months. This follows Lufthansa's announcement on June 19, 2009, that weak industry conditions will necessitate additional measures to safeguard a positive operating result," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Leigh Bailey.
As a result, we believe that Lufthansa may find it difficult to maintain credit measures that we believe are commensurate with the current rating level.
In its warning on profits, Lufthansa stated that in light of persistently weak demand in its passenger and freight business, structural changes in passengers' travel behavior, and rising fuel prices, the group will need to
make additional cost savings to maintain a positive operating result in 2009.
These actions will be in addition to steps already being undertaken throughout the group to cut costs and capacity in all its business segments.
Lufthansa had previously provided market guidance of a considerable fall in operating profit in 2009 from the €1.35 billion achieved in 2008.
However, it continued to target a "distinctly positive" operating result this year. Given the group's recent warning on profit, we believe that there is a high potential for the operating result in 2009 to be weaker than originally envisaged.
On March 31, 2009, the group's credit ratios were commensurate with the ratings, in our view, reflected by funds from operations (FFO) to adjusted debt of 42%. The ratings had factored in that the difficult trading
environment and a subsequent slowdown in passenger growth would likely squeeze Lufthansa's financial profile.
However, a marked deterioration in the revenue and cost environment in the second quarter of 2009 is weakening performance and, in our view, is likely to depress trading prospects for the remainder of the year. This is reflected by falling revenues, due to lower volumes and prices, and a rise in the fuel price, by about 50% since the end of the first quarter.
To resolve the CreditWatch placement, Standard & Poor's will meet with management to discuss the group's current and future trading expectations and the full details of additional cost-saving measures targeted to achieve a positive operating result. In addition, we will address the group's plans for fleet renewal, capital investment, and progress with integrating announced acquisitions.
At the current rating level we anticipate FFO to adjusted debt in 2009 to fall to about 25%, which is acceptable in the context of a cyclical low point. However, the rating also assumes that Lufthansa will improve its credit measures next year, including FFO to adjusted debt of 30%.
Looking forward, the main issues concern the group's ability to offset the adverse effect of weakening trading conditions on its operating performance and how its credit measures will develop relative to the levels commensurate with the ratings.
Based on current information, any lowering of the corporate credit rating will likely be limited to one notch.